Craig Mundie questions whether tablets have a future

Maybe the PC room is Mundie's future, nevertheless not mine and likely not yours. Computer as the room was the room-filling mainframe, which the personal computer replaced. Now the PC is giving way to cloud-connected devices, many of which are portable -- like the media tablet. Maybe Mundie is too much the digital immigrant, having grown up in a different innovation era and he's locked into an archaic way of thinking. Today's digital natives revel in computing on the go -- be constantly connected everywhere. Maybe Mundie clings too much to the Windows-based tablet PC concept that never took off. Or maybe he's living in denial, since Microsoft has got nothing competitive to offer in the media tablet market.

In hearing Mundie speak, it's easy to understand where his reasoning is wrong. I made the same mistake in January 2010 when writing: "The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other." I reasoned the same as Mundie that smartphone and laptop are enough, with functionality overlapping tablets. Nevertheless I later saw the error of my reasoning, posting in June 2010: "I was wrong about Apple iPad."

Mundie said about smartphones and laptops: "These are going to bump into one another a little bit when all is said and done today you can see tablets and pads and other things that are starting to live in the space in between. Personally I don't know whether that space will be a persistent one or not."

Tablets aren't a fad. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates had the right idea about tablets being life changing when he pushed the concept a decade ago. Microsoft merely messed up the execution and timing was premature -- the market wasn't quite but ready. Nevertheless everything is different now. Like other mobile cloud-connected devices, tablets are the future of computing -- meanwhile in the post-PC era. It's a growing market: Global spending on media tablets was $9.6 billion in 2010, according to Gartner, with iPad accounting for near 100 percent of that number. Media tablet spending is predicted to reach almost $30 billion this year. Apple's iPad 2 is sold out in most of the 26 markets where it's distributed.

On March 25, I trucked down to Apple Store Fashion Valley, located here in San Diego, to buy a second iPad 2. I arrived around 7:50 a.m. and waited behind about 50 people until 9:10 a.m. to get a 32GB white Wi-Fi-only iPad 2. The gentlemen earlier and afterwards me were in chatty moods, and I asked about their computing habits. The medical professional was there buying a third iPad 2, a birthday present for his wife. He as well had bought iPad 1 last year. The other guy was buying his first iPad 2. Both men shared similar experience that surprised me. They use laptops at work, nevertheless tablets at home. They've replaced their PCs with iPads. That doesn't mean they never use a PC -- they have to for the moment sync and update their tablets. Or rather, iPad is the primary home computing device.

Maybe Mundie in effect believes that media tablets are a fad, like before Microsoft predictions about iPod and iPhone would go nowhere, too. We know how that turned out. Before today, as well writing about Mundie's comments, The Loop's Jim Dalrymple expressed: "If you don't lead, you follow. If you don't follow, you're doomed. Hello Microsoft."

The way of netbooks

I don't believe Tablets will go the way of netbooks, hitting it big and at that time dying off by and large. Nevertheless I do think that henceforth we will have the "room" as the pc. Everything is connected now and more every day. The tablet will simply be one of the ways we either interact with that system or take it with us on the go.I as well don't believe Apple is the future. I just find them too closed a system for my tastes. Hopefully Android can keep its act at the same time, although WebOS seems decent as so then.

@Joe "They've replaced their PCs with iPads"Joe did you as well asked those people where an Ipad is used for at home? Gaming? Internet? Ebook? I think Tablets have a long-term future but only as a quick access device only read: Internet, Gaming, Ebook Reading, Messaging, Photos and Videos... Tablets to me are all in all nice luxury items to show of with... and I wonder when the "fun" is done if it ends up somewhere on a bookshelf....

I own an Asus EP121, and I can tell you that the reason why Windows Tablets failed earlier is because they where too expensive, the hardware was slow and heavy. They offered no real advantage over a laptop and they were twice as much. I'm not sure that was Microsoft's fault however now it seems hardware has when all is said and done caught up. Yes the iPad is a great media tablet, I believe the best one out there. I can see how a computer user could get hooked on the Apple Juice. Nevertheless, today the iPad isn't going to replace a PC for many users like myself. The EP121 replaces both a laptop and an Media tablet for me. Yes the battery life could be better, yet as the hardware gets better and Microsoft planning to expand to ARM for Windows 8, that problem goes away. Having an Active Digitizer for taking notes and drawing on the EP121 is a killer feature. The minute you try it, you will give up the Pen and Paper forever.I agree with the Assessment that the life of a Media tablet is limited. In the long run, people are going to look to replace their PC's or Netbooks. If Microsoft can convice their partners to put out some Windows 8 tablets on hardware priced like netbooks, at the time why would I want to carry both a media tablet and a PC, why not have one device that can do both work and play evenly as so then using a touch screen + digitizer?

why not have one device that can do both work and play evenly as then using a touch screen + digitizer?Because it doesn't do either also as a regular PC. Tablets aren't so much a fad as a transitional phase leading to the merger of laptops and tablets. The reason this is inevitable is because anyone who has a tablet with a slide-away keyboard and trackpad has the advantage from every point of view. A touchscreen will never replace the time-tested keyboard/mouse combo. All things considered, pay no mind to idiots like Wilcox, who gets more ridiculous with nearly every post and whose claim to fame is constantly admitting how wrong he was. I think its safe to say that one of the guys who built Microsoft is a tad more informed than some tech blogger, esp one who destroys his own argument with this little gem:They use laptops at work, nevertheless tablets at home.Which means they aren't replacing a real, work-a-day computer with a tablet. Their using them as glorified portable chat rooms, browsers and recipe books. Their a smartphone that's big enough to interact with easily, and for extended periods. In summary, tablets are specifically the living room toys that legitimate, objective tech journalists predicted they would be.The future of mobile will not be dominated by oversized iPod Touches, yet by oversized Droids.

I have the feeling that if Android tablets were leading the charge you would be singing a different tune. So, you're just another apple hater.

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