ITC Ruling Threatens Future of Android

and over Android by proxy--when the ITC agreed this week that HTC smartphones violate two Apple patents. The ITC decision could be a sign that the Android party is over, and the mobile OS could be in trouble.

The ITC ruling such a death blow?

Why is the ITC ruling such a death blow? Because the patents in question are not unparalleled to HTC--they are integral to the Android OS itself. If HTC is found to be violating these two Apple patents, at that time so are Motorola, and Samsung, and anyone else making Android devices.

Apple is waging war against Android by proxy with patent battles against HTC and Samsung.Florian Mueller, an expert on intellectual property, explains in a blog post, "Those patents are to all appearances infringed by code in other words at the core of Android."

Table that walks through the two patents

Mueller has created a table that walks through the two patents and compares the patented concepts against the HTC / Android implementation. Reviewing the information on the tables, Mueller exclaims, "It's hard to see how any Android device could not infringe them, or how companies could work around them."

One of the primary benefits of Android--and a driving force behind its broad adoption by smartphone vendors, and rapid success in the market--is that the OS is open source, and license free. More and more, even though, it seems like the lack of licensing paid to Google for using Android will be more than compensated for by fees and royalties being paid to Apple, Microsoft, and others that the Android OS infringes on.

As it stands, Microsoft is making more money from Android licensing agreements with companies like HTC than it is from its own Windows Phone 7 mobile OS. It is as well pursuing legal action with Samsung and has proposed a deal of $15 per Android device.

Those costs start adding up quickly. Vendors like HTC and Samsung at that time have to choose whether to pass the costs along to consumers by charging more for the Android devices, or eat the expense and cut severely into their own profit margin.

Option because that's not the way Apple rolls

Making iOS devices is not an option because that's not the way Apple rolls, nevertheless paying one licensing fee to Microsoft and cranking out Windows Phone 7 smartphones may be more appealing to manufacturers. It is furthermore tempting when you consider that Microsoft guarantees that Windows Phone 7 is free from patent infringement issues and it will defend any claims to the contrary--unlike Google which is sitting silently on the sidelines and letting vendors fend for themselves.

Mueller claims, "Android is also pursuant to this agreement fire in dozens of federal lawsuits. By my count, there are 49 Android-related infringement suits." If even a handful of those go against Android, or Android device manufacturers, it will severely handicap the future success of the OS.

Final determination in the ITC battle between Apple

A final determination in the ITC battle between Apple and HTC is expected in early December. A worst-case scenario for HTC could be an ITC ban against HTC importing any Android devices into the United States.

A similar fate could await Motorola, Samsung, and the rest of the Android bunch. The way things look now, Android could be in for a rough--and expensive--ride.