One IT pro explains why he fears and embraces disruptive cloud and mobile platforms

Being a business IT professional, I have been watching with great interest and excitement the emergence of the iOS model of computing and cloud movements hitting the personal and but commercial computing worlds. But, I must add that at first I have as well viewed these big changes with fear; as recently as 2006, my career was purely based on the SME IT status quo of on-premise Microsoft and LAMP stacks.

1. What used to be a PC vs. what will a PC be. After a fashion it makes sense to classify PCs exclusively as independent devices and to exclude devices that don't fit this profile, just as iPad. For many years PCs were the center of their own respective universes, with networking and external data hubs and control points being mere optional extras. They were not core to the "PC experience."

Today we are rapidly moving away from an independent device arrangement across all our form factors. iOS devices require another device to update the OS, require an App Store cloud to gain and update applications. Android devices are dependent on the Google cloud. Chrome OS is cloud or bust.

2. Macs cost too much... Nevertheless so may Windows some day. Microsoft has always expertly priced Windows to be the cheapest commercial product in short gained and held the OS market for generic devices. This expertly gained monopoly has as well been in accordance with threat from free non-commercial offerings for over a decade, with no market share losses to speak of.

The Linux threats of the past

This new phenomenon of commercial-however-free options appearing from Google are not to be confused with the Linux threats of the past. Android and Chrome OS are commercial ventures that have significant developer efforts and funds backing them. These OSes have behind them teams of people working on development, distribution, partnerships, advertising -- the works.

Consider that major Windows-PC vendors like Dell, Samsung and LG are already active Android licensees and HP has noted plans for WebOS PCs. The sole protective barrier currently shielding the Windows ecosystem is the form factor divide. When Android, Chrome OS and HP's WebOS invade the Windows-PC space, there will be trouble.

Microsoft has tons of smart people, they will surely be able to match any innovation disruption in the PC OS space. Now, responding to a business model disruption via Google or HP and Apple, will be more difficult. There is some precedent with Windows Mobile's business model disruption by Android and iOS for instance my point.

3. Windows ecosystem is simply too large...to adapt. There is no doubt that the Windows ecosystem is large, mature and has been outstandingly successful. The dark side of these attributes -- it's age, it's established nevertheless outdated ways and customs -- are as well its weakness.

Chrome OS, WebOS and the like will at some point breach the Windows form factor barriers and start spilling into the laptop and desktop world. When this happens the Windows ecosystem with its informal application distribution, secret handshakes and focus on traditional standalone applications will be squaring off against a single store, single merchant model a la App Store with the dominant focus on cloud-centric applications.

The ecosystem differences

To contrast the ecosystem differences, I cannot imagine my mother sufficiently finding, purchasing, downloading and installing a single application on her Windows 7 laptop. Furthermore importantly, she wouldn't even attempt it. Windows software is installed by whizz-kid relatives, that's how it has always been. In return, let her loose on an iOS device with her established iTunes account and 6 weeks later there is nearly a full page of purchased, downloaded and installed applications on it.

4. Windows owns the enterprise - and Apple isn't even trying... nevertheless the cloud is! The on-premise enterprise ecosystem will be eaten by cloud computing at a pace approaching Smartphone-PC revolution pace. I'm currently watching this unfold from the coalface working in business IT, and it is remarkable just how gladly established businesses with a lot to loose are prepared to jump into the cloud with both feet.

To be clear, I don't mean to say Microsoft will be the loser in this change; nevertheless it does leave Windows on the enterprise desktop very vulnerable to attack. From a business perspective, a core cloud computing attribute is that services are self contained. A cloud provider wants the list of prerequisites for its prospective clients to be as short as possible.

Malware writers and cybercriminals have plenty incentive to keep the Windows ecosystem running, however they lack any direct control to do anything about this desire.

The IT industry as a consultant for nearly 10 years

Eric Neumann has worked in the IT industry as a consultant for nearly 10 years. His technological bread and butter are advising businesses on IT system decisions as so then as implementing solutions. He currently works at a boutique IT firm providing on-premise and cloud solutions to the SME market. In his free time he pursues software development as a hobby.

I'm all for the disruption of the Windows stack; mainly because I'm tired of the constant grind of unwanted upgrades, updates, useless options, and bloat I use a Mac, because I like the hardware. Yes, it costs more, now it's made pretty slick and cool.

I agree on point 1 - many people will replace their PCs with tablets, and in 3rd world countries a persons first and only computer will be a tablet. If a user by and large uses a tablet, it is just a lie to not call it a PC. A Kindle may be an accessory / media consumption device, nevertheless ipad and future tablets are going to be many people's primary computing device.Nevertheless, points 2 and 4, even though true - there is a fair chance that cloud computing and open source will replace large percentages of corporate Windows installations - that everything considered does not allow Mac to win over Windows. The only way Mac can overtake Windows market share is if Android tablets fail and ipad remains the dominant tablet, and if tablets overtake laptops.With point 3, the albatross of compatibility with legacy applications and demands from corporate users are a main reason why Windows/Microsoft are very unlikely to succeed in the consumer tablet field. Windows apps don't work then on tablets, and as long as the focus is on compatibility instead of encouraging developers to write new tablet friendly apps Windows tablets have no chance with home users. Yet Apple nevertheless cannot gain major laptop or desktop market share, since their products are too expensive.

I have been in IT for 20 years but. Started off supporting DOS PC's and Netware for the US government. My current job at medium size company is as a rule Windows Server/AD/Exchange/Sharepoint etc all on top of VMware which I as well own/support.I came to this medium size organization a few years ago from a very large corporation. At both I don’t see any movement off of traditional PC’s at all. I dont see users sitting in from of smartphones for 8 hours a day. I nonetheless keep in touch with many former coworkers and we talk about such things. In point of fact the movement right now is massive upgrades to Microsoft products. Windows 2003 – 2008R2, Exchange 2003 – 2010, Windows XP – Windows 7, Office 2003 -2010, etc. I think in most cases corporations waited for various reasons, money, recession, Vista/Office 2007/Exchange 2007 etc were 1.0 or this generation, and stuff just worked. Now that stuff is older, and Microsoft is dropping support on lots of it. I saw this same cycle as corporations jumped from NT/Exchange 5.5/Office 2000 over all Windows 2000/Exchange 2000 etc to the Windows XP/2003 Server, Exchange, Office etc….so nothing has changed.Yes I do see more mobile usage by consumers, nevertheless long ago I setup BES server with Blackberries and Exchange 5.5, and the corporation at that time provided some users with devices. Today I see the same thing going on with Exchange 2010, iPhones, Android phones, iPad’s along with Blackberries, Windows Phone 7 etc. Again the corporations provide those devices to some people and depending upon the organization they may allow your to connect your own device if you sign a form and submit to policies pushed down to these devices, including the right to remote wipe them.As far as the cloud I do see some movement to it yet in a medium to larger company it’s very minor. I hear lots of talk about it, nevertheless it never happens. The main things I see are little turnkey solutions that provide a single service used to run on a on premise server or appliance is now web based solution in the cloud. I don’t see any major exodus like moving Exchange to the cloud or anything that requires lots of disk space as the extra cost in terms of network bandwidth, and the price per user to tell the truth going up, kills such things. Example hosted Exchange requires the normal Exchange licenses plus a per user fee on top of that. So it’s more but straightway you don’t need Exchange admins, or Exchange servers or Disk space on a SAN or backup tape/disk. Nevertheless you will need increased bandwidth because now you are sending a 2 meg attachment to the guy 4 offices down, out to the internet and at that time back down again, when it used to be to a server on site over 100-1000meg Ethernet. Think about that network usage times thousands and you may want to keep email and anything large in size on premise. As well very few corporations will get rid of that Exchange Admin, he/she will now be able to help some overworked IT soul on something else.The cloud is going to kill the SMB market. The 3-100 user company that used to either have a very junior IT person or outsourced to a local IT company to come in and support their SBS servers or file servers etc. The cost of that equipment and that single IT person will go to hosted services. PC’s at the office for those 5 employees will be bought at Sams or Walmart. The SMB will clearly need a good connection to the internet, and hopefully without band width caps. I have friends that work in the SMB IT space and they are starting to see it.

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Betanews reader Eric Neuman responds to two February 21st posts by Joe Wilcox, offering his perspective about the future of Windows, IT and cloud-connected devices.