The PC era is over

Yesterday, I chuckled reading the many posts about IDC fourth-quarter smartphone shipment data. As many writers observed, manufacturers shipped more smartphones than PCs -- 100.9 million versus 92.1 million, respectively. This turnabout was inevitable, and it is more than hugely symbolic. The cloud-connected mobile device era has dawned.

A year ago this month I declared that "The Windows era is over," which led to lots of commenters calling me looney or an idiot; coincidently, Apple market capitalization exceeded Microsoft that day. Last month, Microsoft declared it had sold 300 million copies of Windows 7 since its October 2009 launch, which surely doesn't look like the end of an era -- or does it? Cellular manufacturers shipped more smartphones in 2010 -- 302.6 million, according to IDC  -- than Microsoft sold Windows 7 licenses in 14 months. In one quarter, more cell phones ship than PCs while an entire year. Cellular handsets, quite honestly, are pocket computers. Apple's App Store has more than 300,000 applications and last month topped 10 billion downloads. The cloud-connected device noise is simply deafening.

Many people will snark at my declaration, assuming that the end of the era is the end of the PC. On no account. In the 1980s computing and informational relevance shifted from the mainframe to the personal computer in some cases because of lower costs and greater availability. PCs cost much less than mainframes and made information more available, in substance more mobile, to more people. Similar transition is happening today, as cloud-connected mobile devices make more information available to more people in more places than do PCs. Computing and informational relevance is shifting once again. The mainframe didn't go away because of the PC era, the mainframe's relevancy simply declined. The PC won't go away, however it's relevancy is declining.

There are so many other examples, however I'm trying to make a simple point not give a history lesson. Trains were displaced by autos in the United States yet they didn't go away. PCs displaced mainframes, however they're for all that used as so then. Landlines and wireless phones are nearly their dramatic changing point in many mature markets. Newspapers are in process of being displaced by Web content for PCs and mobile devices, yet are likely to co-exist with them for a long time. It's foreshadowing that News Corp. would invest $30 million to launch the tablet-only The Daily newspaper. Times they are a changing however.

On Halloween 2008, I asked in a Microsoft Watch post: "Will your then and there PC be a smartphone?" I've been on a tear about the PC era waning earlier the cloud-connected mobile device era for years. Feature phones and smartphones are much more personal than are PCs. Eleven months ago, writing about a prediction made by a Google employee, I followed up with, here at Betanews: "Will the smartphone replace the PC in three years?" My answer was "Yes." Now I'll qualify it by adding tablets to smartphones replacing PCs, something that's already occurring, according to Gartner and IDC.

The comments

I can already guess the comments, like this one to my March 2010 smartphone post: "Oh, yeah. The infamous annual 'death of the PC' prediction rears its ugly head again." I'm not suggesting the PC is dead or even will shortly go away. Now its era of dominance is over.

Be honest. Which is more important to you? Your PC or your smartphone? Which would cause you more distress to fail or to be lost -- your PC or smartphone? Which could you more easily live without for a day or a week -- your PC or smartphone? Which would you or rather carry with you most of the time -- your PC or smartphone? Which are you more likely to replace this year -- your PC or smartphone? For which do you read most about newer models and plan which one straightway to buy -- your PC or smartphone. It's about relevance, and which device has more of it. Please answer the questions in comments, and feel free to answer about tablets along with smartphones or even instead.

The PC will outlast your flamebait career

I suspect the PC will outlast your flamebait career. It's like crowing that plastic squirtguns and dartguns are all things considered outselling actual handguns. Doesn't mean the police will be switching to NERF.In a given household, it is likely that any person over the age of fifteen will have a personal phone. Children younger than 10 may have their own phone. But there are seldom more than two PCs in a given home. You as well don't accidentally launder your computer, or tumble it down the stairwell.In developed nations, the smartphone will need to be redefined because the "premium" features have become standard fare. Your article should be crowing that "smartphones" are about to kill "feature phones" in the nearly future. And the superphone will be the new smartphone.To conclude: This is not a repeat of "microwaves vs toaster ovens".

You're an idiot.Which is more important to you? Your PC or your smartphone?PC. It contains all my data. GBs worth.Which would cause you more distress to fail or to be lost -- your PC or smartphone?PC. Smartphone is just a clone of a small part of my data. I could buy a new one and sync all my contacts/apps/data back into it.Which could you more easily live without for a day or a week -- your PC or smartphone?Smartphone.Which would you to put it more exactly carry with you most of the time -- your PC or smartphone?Stupid question. Phone evidently, nevertheless that just means it is more portable.

That's just crazy, PC's aren't going anywhere. You would be hard pressed to walk into any school, collage campus, business, or even home without them. Sure smart phones are going to complement them more than ever, and even replace them doing some things, and the desktop may so then go away in another five or six years, nevertheless I just don't see "the end of the PC era" anytime in the near future. They are what the world runs on Joe.

The PC will always be needed

Fact is the PC will always be needed. Yes i can not live without my iphone. However i do say the same about my pc. I am a hardcore gamer and have been for many years. People like me aint going anywhere. The powers that be are just begining to properly track digital sales. Yet even without people like me there are after all tons who want and need a pc. Sure a smartphone is good to have. I can google anything, anywhere. Nevertheless it's alot more fun and easier to do stuff on a big screen. If anything we are living in a world where there are just more toys to play with. The question used to be would people be willing to use more at that time one device due to cost. I think we answered that already. Most of us have broadband at home and on our phones. We have pcs or macs and laptops or tablets and phones. PC sales have not declined Wilcox. You look to get a rush of comments to justify your paycheck. Yet once again you make a wild charge that we feel must be shot down.

This summarizes my take on the PC/mobile argument: I have a friend who is self employed in an industry where there are several excellent business-specific Android apps. When in the field, he uses his Droid and these apps all day long, to great advantage. He's waiting for iPad v2 for when he wants to work in the recliner or on the patio. However in his home office, he switches to his fast i7 desktop with a large flat-panel monitor. I agree that all the "buzz" is around smart phones and tablets - that's what's new and exciting. Everything for the PC seems to be incremental and boring - Acrobat 10 with new toolbars - big whoop, everybody run for the Mastercard.So yes, phones and tablets are where we find the excitement. That doesn't equate to the demise of the PC, with its greater processing power and storage, and IMO infinitely preferable screen real estate. Phones and tablets can take off and take over the world, without diminishing the relevance of the PC in any respect beyond marketing. I think the vast majority will continue to want conventional PCs, regardless of what other devices they buy and use.

The following niches as needing a PC processing power

I used to cite the following niches as needing a PC processing power:1. Long range weather forecasting2. Video editing3. 3D graphicsThen again, some of these functions could be done on a small device. Even the enormous amount of number crunching required for long range weather forecasting could potentially be done on a small device, with the hard number crunching done on a hosted service, just as Amazon's.Video and graphics nevertheless need a video card onboard. However if the connections keep increasing in bandwidth, video editing could potentially move online.My point is that there are not many applications that can't be done on a small device, just as a tablet, or even a PC-like device with keyboard and screen, yet running Android.Most business and offices are full of over powered PCs being used for text and data input. They should all be replaced with Android devices on ARM processors.

Add to the list: Audio and graphics editing, security, media hosting any of the thousands of applications available to smartphones and many many many other functions...

The demise of one thing or another

You will realize that not everyone strictly uses their PCs for writing scathing articles about the demise of one thing or another, which is often more than not purely speculatory. PCs will be around for a long time to come for use in industries, the government sector, hospitals, small business etc etc. Mobile phones and cloud based OS are more relevant today however will not any time shortly replace what is today on the whole an essential part of the workplace.

I agree with many comments below. Smartphones are different from PC's and highly subsidized. I know people who have gone through 3-4 phones earlier replacing a PC. They as well change more dramatically than PC's do.However there is a problem. A smartphone can't do all the things my PC can do. That's why they will have a place for quite some time to come.Last I checked, most offices I visted didn't have users sitting around working on their smart phones either. And I'll go out on a limb and say this article wasn't written on a smart phone either.As far as the last paragraph, I'd be evenly upset about losing any device, yet probably less about my phone since it would likely be cheaper to replace. The other questions are biased towards the smartphone. Why not ask, which device will you manage your pictures with? Which device do you need to get your daily work done?

I think the point Joe is trying to make is that mobile devices have become more relevant than the traditional PC. As Niro and others have indicated, Joe's argument sort of breaks down as he makes comparisons like the horse and carriage, etc. whereby one product has completely replaced another. Technically, I can edit video to some degree on my phone. That said, my phone would never be a viable replacement for my PC for that function.Now, I do agree with Joe on the overall relevancy of the PC. During the focus seems to be on smart phones, I believe tablets go much furthermore towards the relevancy issue. There are but many functions that I prefer to use the tablet for. It's not just a matter of convenience. As people start to use tablets, I believe they will purchase them in place of buying that extra laptop for the family, etc. Undoubtedly, tablets have already taken significant market share away from netbooks, etc.

There is a very misleading factor in comparing smartphone vs PC sales - smartphones are heavily subsidized, so users on some networks get a "free" phone every 2 years and others are for all that encouraged to upgrade often. As well, phones are seen by other people and are considered a fashion statement so they are replaced more often than needed. A desktop computer is reliable enough to last a decade, and most laptops last 4 years or so - if phones were not subsidized and most people only replaced them when they in effect needed to sales would plummet.A better question is what percentage of people have a PC vs. a smartphone - when you consider the high monthly charges to have a smartphone - often over $100, it is clear that most people will never get one.

Where's the Buzz?PC's have been around for decades. Smartphones....not so much. PCs have slowed their advancement in innovation. Smartphone are just getting started.Why are we selling more?Smartphones have a 2-year cycle. PC's have a 5+ year cycle, even in many businesses. Most leases are for ~ 3 years. This means the phones get replaced ever 2 and the PC's every 3-5. This *alone* would account for a 1/3rd difference between the two...and it's nowhere *nearly* that.Come on, Joe. It may get you some hits, nevertheless it truly isn't making you look like you in fact did any homework...

@PC_Tool I expected that reaction from you. See my response to @Rikrdo. I did my homework and should correct you and others: During smartphones frame the analysis, I consistently refer to the cloud-connected mobile device era, which smartphones are now one part. Tablets are another and any device with persistent connection. Do yourself a favor and think ahead.

There is no rason to even try to figure this one out. A desktop is a computer, a smartphone is a cellphone that does a trick or too. I would never consider giving up either, they are different tools to do different functions.OH, my pal just called and he is off to get a new Mac, Don't get excited Joe, it's his third in 5 years to crash and burn - Glad I'm sticking to my Sony laptops and HP desktop, if something does happen, for the moment a part can easily be replaced which is why replacing desktop numbers is down'

Acceleration in the decline of another?

Your response is that in increase in one market = an acceleration in the decline of another??Wow.I bet you believe the decline in pirates is directly related to the rise in global temperature as then, eh?Correlation != causality.Nor does that response in *any* way address either of my points. Funny...I could have sworn you were responding to me...there was even an @PC_Tool in there....I don't need to think ahead or behind or even sideways. I as a matter of fact just think. What's your excuse?Let me break it down using your "points":"Enormously bigger -- for every PC in use there are five cell phone subscribers, according to the United Nations."Sounds damned nearly like 1 PC per household, which sounds just about right. PCs are not individual devices. They can be used by the entire family with separate accounts, smartphones are individual devices. 1:5 makes perfect sense. What you seem to imply would be the norm "if PCs weren't dying" would be what? 1:1? Does that make any sense to anyone here??"Captive -- most people carry mobiles most of the time, nevertheless not PCs."Totally irrelevant. You compare one device to another in an area they were never meant to compete in. Phones are meant to be 1:1. PCs are not. I suppose you could say the Olympic Swim team could kick the Olympic Pole-Vaulting teams a** in pool laps also... and you'd be right...yet just as meaningless."Connected -- cell phones have always-on connections, unlike most PCs."Broadband penetration is probably a bit higher than you seem to think. The only time any PC I have seen in the last 10 years isn't "connected" is when it is OFF....just like a smartphone."More personal -- people care more about their cell phones than PCs. Who asks to be buried with their computers? Nevertheless it's a common request for mobiles."Pure BS. What do you base this on? Wait...let me guess; It's because people carry their phones, right? This clearly also means that my watch is going to replace the desktop! Sweet!"More global -- more people are likely to have cell phones than PCs, particularly in emerging markets."Cell phones? Yes. Smartphones? No....and in this way completely irrelevant. This, not withstanding the same reasoning above as to why people have "individual" phones and "family" computers.Man, I can't wait for your article on why smartphones are going to replace our Televisions because they are outselling them so much...

"PCs have slowed their advancement in innovation."Where? just because it doesnt advance as fast as the smartphone tech doesnt mean the pc arena has got slower. It's advancing at the same speed as it always was.Come on tool explain yourself better

Wilcox get out of your mom's basement and get some fresh air, I swear to god even you said that end of a Windows Era.... AHhahaha far from the truth. idiot i swear to god, for the time being you don't write for a reputable site.

@Rikrdo I've been writing about this transition for years. A transition is, according to my computer dictionary, a "process or a period of changing from one state or condition." The changing of computing eras has been going on for about a half decade, now it's starting to accelerate, which is why I am again writing about it. I don't post to catch comments, and undoubtedly not this topic because I knew that it would generate reactions like yours.You charge that I "make a lie became a truth." Where is all the exciting applications development taking place today? You can't honestly answer it's the PC. C`mon, Ricardo, do you actually want to live in the past during the future passes you by?

"Where is all the exciting applications development taking place today? You can't honestly answer it's the PC."What? Don't tell me developers are developing apps directly on phones.AFAIK, C++/C#/.Net/etc. based-programs are all in all written on PCs with IDE softwares.Yes, phones are becoming more powerful every day, however PCs will be required for many tasks for a very long time even so. Mainstream user may replace a PC with a phone for basic computer needs, yet other kinds of users will need a PC. All the same, I think everyone here is pointing that.Internet and multimedia brought diversified devices for different needs, mobile devices represents computer power in reduced size factory, reducing the focus on PCs and letting everyone carry a small PC everywhere. These are far from having the same power of a traditional PC, nor has the same comfort of a computer with big screen, keyboard and mouse; consequently, their use is all the same limited as being a practical device, instead of being a device for all kinds of tasks.PC era is all in all beginning. Portable devices may become PCs some day, a far way day.

The coming years

PCs have deep down two markets left in the coming years: Programmers and designers.Everyone else can use a tablet or smart phone connected to a central server. Process display on the device, and everything else in the cloud.Everyone needs to understand that people don't need PCs. With the exception of techys the rest are good with a tablet.And no, they don't want Windows 8 running on it. They want WP7 adapted for the tablet running on it.

I can play battlefield 2 on my smartphone? What about fallout, or any other game? What happens when I need to hookup a keyboard to my tablet, at the time a mouse, then and there a printer. Hmmm, did the tablet just turn into a standard desktop? What about optical media?

PC is dead article on the CV

Every writer needs a "PC is dead" article on the CV. The're all cliches, clearly, based as they are on a willful misunderstanding of what PCs are as a matter of fact used for. I'd be willing to bet that there have always been more phones than PCs in the world. Is this news to you? And the last paragraph is just dumb. Why pick which is more important? I have two PCs and a smartphone. When I'm stranded on a country road with a broken transmission, my smartphone is most important. When I'm trying to get labs graded or a new web site deployed, my desktop is most important.Be sure to post a video of yourself writing your columns on a smartphone. I'm sure it'll be most enlightening.

I personally think the question is not about wether the pc era is over or not. smartphones outselling pc's yes clearly, no problem. it represents a whole new angle of connectivity. possibly pc will no longer be the dominant factor in digital land, however to declare them obsolete together ?Niro sort of gave the right direction for a solid criticism of the beforementioned and I can only add that I cant just write off the whole of the pc base because of the assumption that their time has come. I guess that instead of declining, computers will maintain their basic communication function to illustrate, mailing, surfing the net , communicating through facebook, twitter, etc never looked better than or your homely widescreen monitor, or is it that but the smartphone's shape offers better visibility than the old fashioned flatscreen monitors ? like as not new smartphone users that do not own a computer will aument, yet what about the enormous amount of computer users that as well own a smartphone ? do they as well prefer their smartphone's form factor to that of the home computer ? will they in all seriousness consider their basestation to be out of this era(time) ?i do not attempt to think for anyone about this. considering my 25years of pc use and nevertheless my smartphone use, i consider the new smartphone as a very welcome fascilitator of expanding my communication abilitys by means of computerized gadgets not thought of for a long time. I do not see myself not using my pc anymore because of my smartphone. i've set them up to smoothly work at the same time and i must say in other words working flawlessly.crossplatform communications is whats gathering the at once momentum. instead of criticizing each others different brands, shouldnt we be better off communicating ? isnt that what as a matter of fact matters ?

@Niro, your post is spot on. My car is more useful than my PC. I'm not dumping either. Just like smartphone vs PC, it's apples and oranges. The small screens on smartphones will limit their use. I often wait till I'm home or have access to a PC to respond to email or facebook posts. Not to mention, I can't work on my smartphone, not with any efficiency. I undoubtedly don't see my work buying me smartphone to type spreadsheets and Word documents on.The PC may take a small hit since some people can rely on their smartphone for internet access, and I think tablets will put a dent in the PC market. Much like the car, the PC has a place, and even if sales are reduced, it's not going anywhere for a long time.Joe, although you are wrong. :-) I love your posts. They are always thought provoking.

@joe - it seems to me that research skip is somewhat irrevant, because you're talking about markets that lack basic infrastructure including wired communications and 24x7 electric service. It's awesome for emerging markets that they can get wireless mobile devices to enable access to the wider world, however these markets were never going to see PC sales on short notice regardless. They're not "skipping" the PC by choice, or rather they're just buying their only workable option. IMO families in emerging markets would have a family PC such as we do in the US, if they had phone and power lines to plug it into.

The definition of a 'PC'

It depends of the definition of a 'PC'.Do you consider that a tablet PC running Windows 7 is PC?Do you consider a dual-core 10" tablet running Android 3.0 a PC?The era of desktop PCs with mouse and keyboard and cables ... is over.However you however need a PC to make your iPhone 4 and your iPad 1 work.. so...

Oh god, not this nonsense again. PC days are numbered, PC is gone, PC is dead, i'm listening to this crap for like 6 years and the PC is on the whole going strong. It's something certain ppl use at work. Phones can't do its job and consoles as well can't. Now PC can. I think this explains everything.If all this was so awesome, entire Microsoft would be operating on X360 systems and Windows Phone 7 devices. Yet instead they use PC's to do the work. And btw, this post was written from PC and this "news" was probably as so then.Do you nonetheless think PC is going anywhere?

Why do you keep making these dumb comparisons Joe? Comparing PCs to smart phones is a lot like comparing bikes to cars. Yea my bike can do a lot of the things my car can do and it has a different fun factor at the time the car...however if I ever need to in fact go somewhere I'm probably taking my car, which is more fun at once the bike in a lot of ways.

@Niro Which are you more likely to carry on your bike -- your cell phone or PC? That question goes for the car, too. My smartphone has faster processor, better graphics, more storage and faster Internet connection than my circa 2000 PC, and it has more capabilities than my current PC. I challenge you to honestly answer the questions in the last paragraph of the post.

Difference - when you need to do actual work

I usually agree - however there is a difference - when you need to do actual work, you need your PC - what did you write this post on?I agree with your answers too - I just don't think they are 100% relevant to the question.Undoubtedly, PCs are not sexy or objects of desire...yet either is my furnace at home, now when it's cold, its required.

I'll take the bait for once Joe..."Which are you more likely to carry on your bike -- your cell phone or PC?"Why would I take my PC on a bike ride? It's like asking me if I'm going to take my fridge or oven on vacation with me. My PC serves certain functions that I NEED during I'm at home or at work, my phone serves certain functions that are CONVENIENT when I'm NOT home.Which is more important to you? My PC Which would cause you more distress to fail or to be lost -- your PC or smartphone? My PCWhich could you more easily live without for a day or a week -- your PC or smartphone? My PhoneWhich would you or rather carry with you most of the time -- your PC or smartphone? My PhoneFor which do you read most about newer models and plan which one straightway to buy: My phone, PC lasts longer

Entire article on his phone de jour

I challenge Joe to write an entire article on his phone de jour. Create, edit and publish Absolutely on your phone. At the time post if you think your PC is useless.So then said Niro, I agree completely.

"Which are you more likely to carry on your bike -- your cell phone or PC?"lmfao...your response is blatant irrelevant absurdity? Wow...Taking lessons from the likes of iTard, BF, and the gang?Niro: "PCs last longer"bingo! This is the "big concept" JW seems to have completely forgotten about, and more than explains the difference in "units sold"... Hell, a better question would have been "Why are PCs for all that selling so damned much??"

^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^As well a smartphone and or tablet you cannot fix by yourself nor can you update elements and as well have no control if yr device will support the new operating system. PCs can be upgraded tweaked, no limitations on the software. Once again Joe fails

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^specifically why PC's will fail before long as EVERY company whether it be Microd***, Sony, Apple they ALL want you to have limited options on your systems. Sony for Gods sake want you to buy a new Blu Ray Disc EVERY time you want to use it in another player. It will come, they day when YOU will succumb to big brother because terminal and tool, YOU ARE LEMMINGS

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