What's it really like to attend CES?

And I'm not taking my HP Journada as a note-taking device for the first time since 1998. This time, I need to stay connected. So, an old Lenovo X301 with Windows 7, solid-state storage, 3G and WiFi will have to do it. Oh, and extra battery. As late as this, I'm as ready as anyone can be for the chaos in other words CES. What is going to be like there? The rest of this post highlights various aspects of the show, some perennial, some dynamic.

Three-ring circus

Of course it's a three-ring circus, nevertheless the news of interest to me this year is the tablet announcements. Without getting into all the details, the tablet market was moribund until Apple set it off with its iPad. However, everyone else wants in. Even Microsoft, which debuted tablet software in November 2000 at the defunct Comdex tradeshow, has to pretend it has never seen a tablet earlier and reintroduce one this year. CEO Steve Ballmer is reportedly set to do just that while his keynote. I had figured that anywhere from 20 to 40 new tablet models would be announced. Last week, Craig Ellis of Caris & Co estimated 69. How he got that precise number, I'm not sure. My own estimate is that only 25-40 percent of those will as a matter of fact come to market, and many fewer nevertheless will find commercial success.

This monster venue is a wonder to behold. With three major sections -- North, Central, and South -- the Las Vegas Convention Center boasts 3.2 million square feet of total space pursuant to this agreement a single roof. With 16 exhibit halls, the LVCC offers nearly 2 million square feet of actual exhibit space, 110,00 square feet of lobby and concourse area, 144 meeting rooms, ceiling heights ranging from 25 to 35 feet, and "free" internet access throughout.

The years I've been coming to the show

Would it be horrible if I admitted that in all the years I've been coming to the show, I've never been to a single keynote speech? These highly orchestrated events are on the whole leaked well previously they run, pretty predictable in what the industry luminaries on stage say and then covered by the world's top research press, whose attendance is de rigueur. I'd much to put it more exactly read about them online than try to get into the hot, crowded venues where they take place. In some years, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates would fill the hall to overflowing and even the live TV feed rooms were oversubscribed. Nope, I'll take mine with coffee the then morning.

The show floor is a cacophony. The quality of exhibits runs the spectrum, all the way from the Microsoft and Intel booths -- massive showcases of current products with sound-proofed rooms in back to show future products to the select few -- to every small company with a product or service related to consumer electronics. You can bet that a lot of them will be flogging accessories for Apple products this year. Apple, itself, is, clearly, elsewhere.

The largest

Many of the largest and most serious vendors take space in hotels around the city. They do so because they want a quiet place where they can control the variables to show vetted guests sensitive things like prototypes of potential future products or finished versions of products that will be introduced later in the year. As well, the hotels can offer better space and service for a better price in most cases. If a vendor doesn't have to worry about drawing traffic, its best interests are served entertaining off the floor. This parasitic behavior depends on the existence of the show to create a moment when the whole industry is in one place, even so it contributes nothing to the show's producers. Extremely case, all the best-heeled vendors could boycott the show floor and drive CES out of business, ending the excuse everyone needs to be in Vegas together once a year.

Roger Kay is President of Endpoint Technologies Associates, an independent research market intelligence company. Before, has was vice president of Client Computing at IDC, covering desktop and notebook PCs. Earlier that, he ran his own innovation practice, directed operations for a software developer, ran a innovation practice for a consulting company, managed international accounts for a hardware manufacturer and developed new products for a network services firm.

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