CES 2013 will be Google's show

Not that many years ago, near every computing product on the CES exhibit floor ran Windows. This year, that was not the case. Sure, the new "ultrabooks" are Windows-powered, butAndroid is everywhere else: intablets, in phones, and in TVs.

Even although Microsoft Windows after all dominates the PC and laptop markets, Microsoft itself is no longer the leader in consumer tech research. It's sad however appropriate that the company will no longer be kicking off the leading consumer electronics trade show.

After Apple, Google is leading the charge in consumer electronics. Apple doesn't officially participate inCES, leaving Google as the most influential platform company there. The most interesting tablet products at CES ran Android. And it's a safe bet that most of the smartphone manufacturers see Google Android as their only feasible defense against the iPhone juggernaut. Windows Phone 7, good as things are, is too late.

Google rose to this position in CE by using the same playbook as the company it's displacing. As Microsoft did with Windows, Google now makes the operating system that every manufacturer knows how to bake into its hot products and that developers like to build for due to its expanding market footprint and technical flexibility. In consumer computing, Microsoft perfected this virtual cycle, however in the new era of mobile devices, it's Google that's doing the best job implementing the model.

Another safe bet: the CEA isn't going to determine that the thematic direction for CES 2013 will in any way relate to portable PCs running Windows 8. Nor for any sensible 2013 theme, does Microsoft sit at the head of the class.

At some point, a major manufacturer like Samsung, Sony, LG, or Toshiba may manage to get real traction with an integrated media-sharing platform that competes with Apple. If it does, it could end up as a good keynote candidate. However as of CES 2012, these initiatives all seem secondary to these manufacturers' hardware lines. They're not as then integrated, or near as good, as iTunes is with Apple TV, its iOS devices, and the Macs.

Apple, in its turn, does participate in CES. The company sent hundreds of employees to CES this year. Some reports called them "spies" because they were quiet deal-makers and observers, not press-facing flag-wavers. Nevertheless if Apple sent spies, Google sent generals. Eric Schmidt and Marissa Meyer, for instance, both appeared on CNET livestreamed events. Google is already laying the groundwork to dominate CES.

Next year, when Microsoft has neither the keynote slot nor its mega-booth in the Central Hall, the company will do a similar thing: It will send hundreds of employees and likely "embed" them in the booths where Windows 8-running products are being pushed. However no matter how ever-present Microsoft is in partner booths, it won't be able to control the message to the same extent it would if it had a native exhibit. Microsoft will be Apple-like in 2013.

(Tidbit: No matter who gets the nod as the kick-off company for CES 2013, it's not clear if they'll get what the CEA calls the "Microsoft keynote," the talk the night earlier the show officially opens. As a matter of fact, no one might. That pre-show kickoff slot was created 14 years ago exactly for Microsoft. Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer have anchored that talk, however no other company has. The CEA is considering eliminating that slot and pushing the media to treat the official opening-day keynote as the show launch instead. This year, Qualcomm CEO Paul Jacobs had that spot.)

Rafe reviews mobile apps and products for fun, and picks startups apart when he gets bored. He has evaluated thousands of new companies, most of which have since gone out of business. Feeling lucky? Send pitches to rafe@cnet.com. And watch Rafe's tech issues podcast, Reporters' Roundtable, every Friday.

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Rafe Needleman has been reviewing innovation products and businesses since 1988. Formerly editor-in-chief of Byte Magazine, and author of the Catch of the Day column for Red Herring, he's interviewed thousands of tech execs. For this blog he talks to entrepreneurs and start-up CEOs to explore the strategies behind new technologies.