Fanboys swoon, telcos cross themselves

A view from the trenches of Australian telecommunications. As the name implies, it’s a two-way conversation and we ask you not to pull any punches ... we won’t.

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The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between hardware makers

The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between hardware makers and telecommunications providers took a dark turn this morning as Apple's latest creation — the not iPad 3 — made it patently clear that the wireless broadband networks on which we increasingly rely are likely to become congested beyond belief.

Turns out I'm not alone: broadband speeds may be pretty good overall — an IDC survey this week found that in over 1000 tests, broadband speeds were sitting at anywhere from 2.6Mbps in Melbourne and 3.5Mbps in Sydney — nevertheless upload speeds have to all appearances declined 30 per cent overall since 2010.

This is no fluke: IDC analyst Dustin Kehoe recommended the change was because the carriers are re-allocating upload channels for use as download channels. And they're doing that for just one reason: their networks are clogged to capacity. It's similar to how road authorities allocate certain lanes of busy streets to change direction at different times of the day.

I have no idea how IDC compensated for the total lack of connectivity in apparent blackspots like Bourke Street — lots of zero scores would seemingly have dragged down the Melbourne average more — however if we've already gotten to the point where we're shuffling things around to keep the bits flowing, I'd say our mobile networks are in actual fact in trouble.

Things are getting cramped and they're not going to get any better ... data is doubling on the network every year nevertheless revenues aren't.

How could they not be?

How could they not be? Telstra alone has over 13 million clients. I know some Indian telcos are adding that many clients every month or two, nevertheless they're only carrying voice and SMS more often than not. Our networks are supporting a data-devouring business and consumer culture that I'd suggest puts most other countries to shame. We love our mobile broadband something chronic, even to the point where we'll put up with this sort of patchy service for the convenience it provides.

Get used to it: a little something I like to call "reality" means the new iPad — for some reason, nobody is uttering the words "iPad 3", in the same strange way that the iPhone 4S in effect isn't the iPhone 5 although it is — won't support Telstra's 1800MHz 4G network, which means that all the new models used in this country will fall back to conventional 3G frequencies.

All that means just one thing: as the iPad starts to sell here by the squillion, it will create furthermore incursions into the already limited bandwidth we already have. Though savvy users know to offload massive data transfers to Wi-Fi networks, the iPad is getting more and more cloud-hungry — which means nearly-constant communication even out in the field.

Things are getting cramped — which is part of the reason Telstra rushed ahead with its LTE (Long Term Evolution, latest standard in the mobile network technology) offering to begin with — and they're not going to get any better. Come to think of it, one of the recurring themes at the industry's recent Mobile World Congress love-in was that telcos are racing to keep up with exploding demand however not as a matter of fact getting paid for it. Telstra bigwig Kate Mackenzie was open about the challenge: "data is doubling on the network every year yet revenues aren't", she told the AFR.

Nope: the earnings are going to companies like Google, Microsoft, IBM and Apple, which are hard at work building bandwidth-sucking applications that ensure congestion everywhere from Bourke Street to Back of Bourke. Just when telcos think they've gotten it all pursuant to this agreement control through a bit of channel tweaking, a device like the iPad 3 — erm, "new iPad" — comes along and puts them back to Square One.

I and others saw this coming two years ago, when the iPad bowed and it was clear the networks were going to have to fundamentally revisit their strategies. Even at that point I referred to "coming 4G networks" as an important step; now that they're here, the reality is something less ... so then, less.

This is a platform, mind you, on which Apple is actively trying to replicate the desktop experience with video-editing apps that provide direct uploads to sites like Vimeo. It has enabled 3G support for VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) applications like Skype that are great for consumers, however disastrous for telcos.

The boot in

As if it hadn't already put the boot in, Apple is rapidly spreading its iMessage infrastructure to its desktops and beyond; it's set to become a ubiquitous messaging platform in other words quickly annihilating carriers' billions in SMS earnings. Adding furthermore insult to injury, services like Optus Now TV have threatened the ability of carriers like Telstra to try to lure clients to their networks. For telcos, these sorts of services are of that sort kind-of mate that drops in with his friends, interrupts your hot date, at the time orders a dozen pizzas — and begs poor previously leaving you to pay the bill.

We all want more for less, however as the impact of those escalating expectations becomes apparent in slower mobile broadband services and impending threats from data-sucking devices like the Not-iPad 3, telcos are slowly and steadily running out of options. The business desire for growth dictates that they continue to work on attracting more and more clients to their networks, yet if those clients can't even get connections in business centres like Bourke Street, then, what good is that growth going to do anybody?

Debate that will run

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This misses the point on availabilty of higher speed broadband services. There are for all that too many who can not get reasonable service. F...

Hi Meffisto,Here's the stats linked to in my article that indicate LTE won't be supported:Wi-Fi + 4G ...

" Nevertheless Telstra was impatient and decided to launch its LTE network in the old 2G spectrum band of 1800MHz last year. Optus is planning to ...

The AU online store

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Not sure Telstra was "impatient" to launch LTE, nevertheless done out of necessity to offload data off its 3G network.The 700MHz frequency band ...