Windows 8 Tablet Won't Dent Apple

Mobile experts don’t expect Microsoft’s Windows 8 tablet, set to debut later this year, to shake up the rapidly growing category dominated by the iPad and various Android-based devices. That’s among the projections from an annual survey of mobile executives, developers and analysts by innovation firm Chetan Sharma, looking ahead at the wireless industry in 2012 and beyond.

In two years, a Windows 8 tablet is forecast to capture only 8% of the market, during Apple’s iPad and Android will claim 45% and 44% each. Tablets overall are expected to be the principal non-phone mobile device in the upcoming year.

The perennial apps versus Web debate

When it comes to the perennial "apps versus Web" debate, the pendulum is expected to swing in favor of the mobile Web in 2012, with growing adoption of HTML5 programming language. Nevertheless, hybrid models blurring the distinction between apps and the mobile Web are expected to be around for a long time. For apps, a combination of paid and ad-based revenue will continue to be the norm.

Messaging, wireless access, apps and advertising are seen as the four broad areas that will account for the bulk of sales. When it comes to factors that will drive demand for 4G services, mobile video leads the way, followed by cloud computing and access.

Among the biggest story lines to unfold this year will be the continuing expansion of mobile data, Amazon’s entry into the mobile space, how Windows Phone-Nokia devices will sell, whether embattled BlackBerry-maker Innovation in Motion will survive as an independent company, and Facebook’s upcoming initial public offering and its mobile ambitions.

Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs, who died in October, was named as mobile person of the year for 2011. His passing was as well noted as one of the biggest stories last year, along with the continued global expansion of Android. Top people to watch in mobile this year include Facebook co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos and Google mobile head Andy Rubin.